Orders are a leading indicator. The book-to-bill ratio leads revenue; the higher the ratio, the longer the revenue lead-time. A high ratio puts greater reliance on working capital to fund the activity that generates those future billings, making credit availability the key force behind cancellations and a market reassessment of future billings. As of 2026-09-30.
Ranked top-of-stack (compute/credit) down to the physical layers. Bars share a 3.5x scale. hard = reported bookings + revenue (drives the aggregate); qual = directional only; proxy = RPO stand-in. Backlog shows YoY where disclosed. Under the borrowers, Owed by / Backed by show who the backlog is owed by and who stands behind it; figures marked as from a map are third-party and unverified. Price cross-check: confirming = within 10% of the 52-week high and above the 50-day average; otherwise rolling over.
| Name | Quarter | Book-to-bill | Backlog | Price cross-check | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute & Credit seam | |||||
| ORCL proxy Oracle | FQ1 FY27 2026-09-10 | n/d ↓ lower | $664.0B +46% | price rolling over -54% off high | RPO $664B (+$209B / +46% YoY) is the seam's backlog, but sequential growth was only +$26B (~+4% annualized) — the first sign of deceleration. Funded via a $20B equity raise plus customer prepayments. The credit weak-link of the build. Owed by OpenAI, about $300bn over five years as reported in 2025: roughly 45% of the $664B RPO (my arithmetic). Backed by None. Oracle funds the build itself (leases not yet commenced $288B at the Aug 31 10-Q; see the buyer-side table). |
| Neoclouds (the borrowers) | |||||
| CRWV proxy CoreWeave | Q2 26 2026-08-11 | n/d ↓ lower | $104.0B +246% | price rolling over -37% off high | Backlog about $104B (+246% YoY); Q2 add slowed to $4.6B from $32.6B, though $25B+ was signed early Q3. Debt $35.1B, newest facility Ba2/BB+ at SOFR+550. Owed by OpenAI about $22.4bn, Meta about $35bn, Microsoft about $10bn: roughly two-thirds of the $104B backlog (my arithmetic; the Meta and Microsoft figures are from a third-party map, unverified). Backed by Nvidia: $4bn equity, a $6.3bn capacity rent-back, and CoreWeave has committed about $21bn of purchases from Nvidia (map). The $35.1B of debt is CoreWeave's own. |
| NBIS proxy Nebius | Q2 26 2026-08-12 | n/d ↓ lower | $37.5B | price rolling over -15% off high | RPO about $37.5B; Q2 add slowed from Q1's Meta-driven $12.3B. Funded by $6.0B of prepayments, $8.5B of convertibles and a secured facility on an investment-grade contract. Owed by Meta up to $27bn over five years (March 2026); Microsoft $19.4bn. Backed by No guarantee disclosed. Both buyers are investment grade, and $6.0B of prepayments fund the build. |
| IREN qual IREN | Q4 FY26 2026-08-27 | n/d n/a | n/d | price rolling over -45% off high | Contracted ARR $4.0B (Microsoft about half); no backlog total. Financing tiered by customer: 6.0% on Microsoft, 9.0% on non-investment-grade. Nvidia's 'up to $2.1B' is a warrant. Owed by Microsoft, about half of contracted ARR. Backed by None disclosed. Nvidia's 'up to $2.1B' is a warrant, not a backstop. |
| APLD proxy Applied Digital | Q4 FY26 2026-07-27 | n/d ↑ higher | $36.0B | price rolling over -49% off high | Lease value about $36B, over half one investment-grade hyperscaler and 31% CoreWeave, itself a borrower. Notes now price at 6.75-7.0% against 9.25% earlier. Next print 10/7. Owed by One investment-grade hyperscaler (over half of lease value) and CoreWeave (31%). Backed by None disclosed. CoreWeave is itself a borrower, so that 31% is credit risk one step removed. |
| Memory & Silicon | |||||
| MU proxy Micron Technology | Q4 FY26 2026-09-30 | n/d ↑ higher | $150.0B | price rolling over -11% off high | Backlog shown is RPO ~$150B (~$100B a quarter earlier), strategic customer agreements only. 26 SCAs (10 new), deposits received $12.3B in the quarter, $32B commitments. The flow of new deposits and SCAs, not the balance, is the tell; it is still rising. |
| Networking & Optical | |||||
| CIEN qual Ciena | Q3 FY26 2026-09-03 | n/d ↑ higher | $8.5B | price rolling over -38% off high | Book-to-bill well above 1; backlog $8.5B, guided above $10B by year end; first month of Q4 orders about equal to all of Q3. Ratio directional. |
| Interconnect & Components | |||||
| RFIL qual RF Industries | Q3 FY26 2026-09-14 | n/d ↓ lower | $19M | price rolling over -61% off high | Record revenue $24M, but book-to-bill slipped to about 0.94x from 1.27x; backlog $18.6M. AI-infra pivot; small-cap and lumpy. |
| Assembly & Systems | |||||
| JBL qual Jabil | Q4 FY26 2026-09-30 | n/d ↑ higher | n/d | price rolling over -21% off high | Intelligent Infrastructure revenue +56% to $5.8B, Q1 guided ~$6.3B (+63% YoY); FY27 cloud/data-center guided ~$17.5B (+52%) and company revenue ~$44.5B (+24%); 'committed customer demand is filling the additional capacity'. No bookings disclosed, so directional. Shares fell ~10% on a beat-and-raise (valuation). Consumer devices guided down ~15% on memory constraints. |
| Power & Cooling | |||||
| TT qual Trane Technologies | Q2 26 2026-07-30 | n/d ↓ lower | $12.1B +70% | confirming -8% off high | Data-center cooling: applied bookings +130%, book-to-bill above 100% (>1). Directional read; not a pure-play. |
| VRT qual Vertiv | Q2 26 2026-07-29 | n/d n/a | n/d | price rolling over -33% off high | No orders or backlog disclosed since Q4 2025 (then 2.9x, $15.0B backlog); customer prepayments doubled to $3.6B in six months. Disclosure stopped after the peak print. Directional. |
| Power & Electrical | |||||
| FPS Forgent Power Solutions | Q4 FY26 2026-09-15 | 3.30x ↑ higher | $3.0B +256% | price rolling over -38% off high | 7th straight quarter of record bookings and backlog; first direct order from a frontier AI lab plus a hyperscaler MSA. Shares peaked in June and rolled over even as the order book accelerated — the divergence that motivated this monitor. |
| POWL Powell Industries | Q3 FY26 2026-08-03 | 3.00x ↑ higher | $2.4B +69% | price rolling over -39% off high | New orders $934M (+158% YoY) vs revenue $311.7M = 3.0x; backlog $2.4B (+69%). Three awards ~$535M incl. a data-center project >$400M, but the mix also includes petrochemical, LNG and utility, so not a pure data-center read. Shares -3.8% the day after the print. |
| ETN qual Eaton | Q2 26 2026-07-31 | 1.20x ↑ higher | n/d | confirming -5% off high | Rolling-twelve-month book-to-bill 1.2x in Electrical and Aerospace; Electrical Americas orders +41% (12-mo avg), Electrical Global +33% organic, Electrical backlog +43% YoY. Data centers a significant driver within broad strength. Directional (ratio is a rolling 12-month figure, not a quarter bookings number). |
| NVT qual nVent Electric | Q2 26 2026-08-01 | n/d ↓ lower | $2.5B | confirming -8% off high | Systems Protection's first $1B quarter (+62% organic), but orders growth slowed to low double-digit from about +40% and backlog slipped to $2.5B. Directional. |
| Power & Grid | |||||
| GEV qual GE Vernova | Q2 26 2026-07-23 | n/d ↑ higher | $176.0B | price rolling over -16% off high | Power and grid equipment, the AI-electricity bottleneck read. Orders $24.2B and backlog $176B, up $13B in the quarter. Directional. |
| Construction & EPC | |||||
| AGX qual Argan | Q2 FY27 2026-09-02 | n/d ↓ lower | $2.5B | price rolling over -52% off high | Backlog $2.518B at 7/31/26 vs $2.929B at 1/31/26 (-$411M, -14% in two quarters) while revenue hit a record $384M (+61.5%): projects burning off faster than new awards arrive. Lumpy EPC (gas power, solar/battery, industrial) and book-to-bill not disclosed, so this is a first backlog contraction to watch, not a confirmed demand cancellation. |
| Industrial (AI-exposed) | |||||
| PH qual Parker Hannifin | Q4 FY26 2026-08-07 | n/d ↑ higher | $12.8B | price rolling over -9% off high | Order rate +19% (from +9%); backlog a record $12.8B. Broad industrial/aerospace, AI-exposed but not a pure-play. |
| Defense & Autonomy | |||||
| AVAV AeroVironment | Q1 FY27 2026-09-09 | 1.40x ↑ higher | $1.5B +37% | price rolling over -66% off high | Funded backlog $1.5B +37% YoY / +23% seq; unfunded backlog $1.4B. Adjacent government-funded capex engine, largely acyclical. |
The mirror image of the backlog above: one company's backlog is its customer's obligation. These are commitments signed but not yet delivered, taken from the quarterly filing footnotes. Leases not yet commenced are signed building leases whose rent has not started, so US accounting does not yet put them on the balance sheet. Purchase commitments are noncancelable contracts to buy chips, power, cloud capacity and equipment; they are obligations to pay, not borrowing. Guarantees are promises to cover a third party's loss or loan if it fails (a residual value guarantee covers a landlord's loss if a building is worth less than expected); they are contingent, so they are not added to the other two. $1,118B of leases not yet commenced across these five, +36% (+$297B) on the prior quarter. Direction is the signal: the quarterly addition shrinking would be the first sign the buyers are slowing.
| Company | Leases not yet commenced | Purchase commitments | Guarantees | Detail and caveats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta 10-Q Q2, 2026-06-30 | $279B +$96B (+53%) vs prior | $349B +$112B (+47%) vs prior | $41.0B | Hyperion residual value guarantee about $28B (maximum loss on the venture $46.03B) plus El Paso about $13B signed in July. Whether these ventures stay off the balance sheet is re-judged each period. Another ~$68B of leases signed in July is not yet in these figures. Purchase commitments are mostly cloud capacity (neocloud contracts sit here), servers and data centers. |
| Microsoft 10-K FY26, 2026-06-30 | $329B +$133B (+67%) vs prior | $229B | none found | No guarantees identified. Annual table: purchases are $194.1B hardware and power plus $34.6B construction, updated only at the 10-K, so no quarterly comparison. Leases start FY27 to FY33. |
| Alphabet 10-Q Q2, 2026-06-30 | $85.2B +$10B (+13%) vs prior | $707B +$375B (+113%) vs prior | $51.4B | $43.8B notional of credit derivatives backstopping data-center payments (up to 15 years) plus $7.6B of backstops on suppliers' power equipment. The jump in purchase commitments is large and the note has widened from content licenses to chips and power, so the like-for-like change is unverified. |
| Amazon secondary 10-Q Q2, 2026-06-30 | $137B +$31B (+29%) vs prior | $148B +$45B (+43%) vs prior | none found | None found. The Q1 10-Q also mentions a $20B facility for Anthropic and a $35B OpenAI preferred stock commitment (summary read, verify). June figures from a secondary tracker; I could not open the Q2 10-Q. March figures are from the Q1 10-Q. |
| Oracle 10-Q Q1 FY27, 2026-08-31 | $288B +$28B (+11%) vs prior | n/d | none found | A $3.3B guarantee of a lessor's loan matured in September 2026 and is not repeated in the August 10-Q. Purchase commitments not shown because two secondary sources disagree. RPO $664B. |
Undiscounted dollars over the life of each contract, so not comparable with debt. Filings differ in what they include, so compare each company with its own prior quarter more than with the others. secondary = figure taken from a third-party tracker, not read in the filing. Next prints: the September-quarter 10-Qs, expected late October.
Order-book events — cancellations, push-outs, deferrals, award slippage. This is the tripwire. It is empty for the AI-capex cohort. The one entry is an adjacent government name, kept as the reference for what a genuine break reads like.
| Date | Name | Event | Magnitude | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | SAIC | slippage | book-to-bill 0.6x (0.8x TTM) | Adjacent government cohort, NOT AI-capex. New awards slipping right under fixed-price directives. The weakest order flow in the screen, and falling (0.6x vs 0.8x TTM) — the reference for what order momentum turning lower reads like. |
Names whose order flow is running below their prior print: the same names marked ↓ lower in the cohort table, and the lower count in the header. Price is shown separately in the cohort table.
| Name | Order momentum | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL Oracle | ↓ lower RPO add +$85B → +$26B | RPO sequential growth collapsed to +$26B vs +$209B YoY Backlog still huge and up 46% YoY, but the sequential add decelerated sharply. The first place a slowdown would show at the credit seam — watch the next print. |
| CRWV CoreWeave | ↓ lower backlog add +$32.6B (Q1) → +$4.6B (Q2); >$25B signed early Q3, not yet in backlog | Backlog add fell to about $4.6B from $32.6B, though $25B+ was signed early Q3 Debt rose to $35.1B; the newest facility is Ba2/BB+ at SOFR+550. The Q3 signings are not yet in the backlog, so read the next print before calling this a slowdown. |
| NBIS Nebius | ↓ lower RPO add +$12.3B (Q1, Meta) → +$3.9B (Q2); Q2 RPO from a secondary source | RPO add slowed to about $3.9B from $12.3B (Q2 figure from a secondary source) Prepayments and a secured facility on an investment-grade contract are funding the build; management says new-customer deal value was more than 9x higher. |
| RFIL RF Industries | ↓ lower b2b 1.27x → 0.94x; bookings $26.3M → $22.5M | Book-to-bill slipped to 0.94x from 1.27x on record sales Small-cap and lumpy; year-to-date bookings still ahead of sales. Worth one more print before reading it as demand. |
| TT Trane Technologies | ↓ lower b2b 135% → 123%; applied bookings +160% → +130% (backlog still up, $10.7B → $12.1B) | Book-to-bill 135% to 123%; applied bookings growth +160% to +130% Backlog still rose to $12.1B, so this is order growth slowing from a very high rate, not orders falling. |
| NVT nVent Electric | ↓ lower organic orders ~+40% → low double-digit; backlog $2.6B → $2.5B | Organic orders growth slowed to low double-digit from about +40% Backlog $2.5B from $2.6B. Management calls large data-center orders lumpy and says Q3 to date is very strong. |
| AGX Argan | ↓ lower backlog $2.93B (Jan) → $2.52B (Jul), -$411M | Backlog fell $411M (-14%) since January while revenue hit a record Project burn-off outrunning new awards at a data-center-adjacent EPC; lumpy and no book-to-bill disclosed. First backlog contraction in the cohort; check the next two prints before reading it as demand. |
A falling book-to-bill in an adjacent, non-AI government cohort — the calibration for the AI-capex gauge above. The signal is the direction of order flow, not the 1.0 line.
| Name | Quarter | Book-to-bill | Signal | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAIC Science Applications Intl | FQ2 FY27 2026-09-08 | 0.60x ↓ lower | price rolling over -6% off high | CONTRAST NAME, not AI-capex. Book-to-bill just 0.6x (0.8x TTM): new awards slipping right under fixed-price / efficiency-squeeze procurement. Included as calibration for falling order momentum (0.6x now vs 0.8x trailing twelve months) in an adjacent government cohort. |
Built from reported figures only; no ratio is fabricated. Names without clean disclosed bookings are marked qual/proxy and excluded from the aggregate. Sources: company earnings calls and filings as captured in the earnings-scanner archive; buyer-side commitments from the 10-Q and 10-K footnotes (hyperscaler_commitments.csv). Regenerate the page with python bookbill.py after editing any control file (bookbill_tracker.csv, cancellations.csv, watch_signals.csv, hyperscaler_commitments.csv). Generated 2026-10-05.