Global-production-weighted shock → price, one axis. Bars right of zero are upward price pressure; bars left are downward. Scenario output, not a forecast.
Sortable. Modelled is the share of world production this system has an actual response for; Listed is the share it can name. The gap is supply it knows exists but cannot model — for fishmeal that is mostly Chinese rendering of imported raw material, which does not answer to a Peruvian El Niño. An earlier build counted the gap as coverage, which made a 32%-modelled estimate look like 57%.
Every value here is the composite response scaled to forecast intensity. Confidence already carries the extrapolation penalty.