Evenflow Alternative Data

Alternative data exercises. Each one takes a signal that is not a market price and turns it into a series you can actually test against one.

House method

Every exercise here follows the same four rules. They are the reason these are comparable to each other, and the reason a number published on this site means the same thing next year as it does today.

Point-in-time Scores are stamped when computed and never revised. What you see is what was knowable on that date.
Provenance on every figure Each value is labelled by how it was obtained — read from a primary source, cached, or modelled. The tiers are never blurred.
Stated limits Where a method is extrapolating beyond its calibration, the output says so and discounts itself accordingly.
Full history, downloadable Complete series as CSV or JSON. No sign-up, no partial extracts.

Exercises

AI-Capex Book-to-Bill Monitor

Converts company order books into an early-warning gauge for the AI capital cycle — cohort book-to-bill, a cancellation log, order momentum, the neoclouds and who stands behind their backlog, and the price cross-check.

2.50×
Aggregate b2b
19
Cohort names
0
Cancellations
Book-to-bill Order momentum Credit Chain Price cross-check
Open the monitor →

Beige Book Alt-Data Screen

Converts qualitative Federal Reserve survey text into a quantitative macro regime signal — recession probability and inflation forecasts, scored district by district.

~440
Books scored
1970–
Coverage
8×/yr
Cadence
12
Districts
Text scoring Lough­ran–McDonald Adjective ladder Logistic regression Backtested
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El Niño 2026–27 Tracker

Converts a physical climate forecast into commodity supply and price pressure — a global-production-weighted shock across 13 commodities and 41 regions, refreshed twice daily.

3.6 °C
Forecast peak
667
Ensemble members
41
Regions
20
Sources
Teleconnection composites Price elasticity Fisheries depletion Not backtested
Open the tracker →