Evenflow Alternative Data

Alternative data exercises. Each one takes a signal that is not a market price and turns it into a series you can actually test against one.

House method

Every exercise here follows the same four rules. They are the reason these are comparable to each other, and the reason a number published on this site means the same thing next year as it does today.

Point-in-time Scores are stamped when computed and never revised. What you see is what was knowable on that date.

Provenance on every figure Each value is labelled by how it was obtained — read from a primary source, cached, or modelled. The tiers are never blurred.

Stated limits Where a method is extrapolating beyond its calibration, the output says so and discounts itself accordingly.

Full history, downloadable Complete series as CSV or JSON. No sign-up, no partial extracts.

Exercises

Exercise 01

Beige Book Alt-Data Screen

Converts qualitative Federal Reserve survey text into a quantitative macro regime signal — recession probability and inflation forecasts, scored district by district.

~440

Books scored

1970–

Coverage

8×/yr

Cadence

Districts

Text scoring Loughran–McDonald Adjective ladder Logistic regression Backtested

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Exercise 02

El Niño 2026–27 Tracker

Converts a physical climate forecast into commodity supply and price pressure — a global-production-weighted shock across 13 commodities and 41 regions, refreshed twice daily.

3.6 °C

Forecast peak

667

Ensemble members

Regions

Sources

Teleconnection composites Price elasticity Fisheries depletion Not backtested

Open the tracker →